Huh? What does OFO mean? First, a step back. The US natural gas pipeline and distribution system can be thought of as a large container with producers injecting natural gas (supply) and customers withdrawing natural gas (demand). Last year, during 2011, the US consumed 24.4 trillion cubic feet (TCF ) of natural gas, or, on…
Read MoreThe development of a liquefied natural gas export trade was identified in a previous article as an influence that would put upward pressure on natural gas prices. To follow is an overview of where the US liquefied natural gas markets have been and where they may be headed. But first, what is liquefied natural gas?…
Read MoreHow low can natural gas prices go? We may find out soon. First some background. US natural gas demand varies considerably over the course of a year, driven primarily by natural gas usage related to heating. During peak winter months, natural gas demand exceeds the production capacity of North American natural gas wells. Natural gas…
Read MoreWe have noted previously on this blog that natural gas prices have declined dramatically over the last three years. On January 19, 2012 the February futures contract settled at $2.32 per million Btus. This is lower than natural gas prices have been in a decade and we are in the winter heating season, a time…
Read MoreIt was recently reported that a power purchase agreement between National Grid and Cape Wind was approved by the Massachusetts Supreme Judicial Court. National Grid is committed to purchasing half of the output of the project at a starting price of 18.7 cents per kilowatt-hour. This price will then escalate 3.5% per year for 15…
Read MoreWe have looked at historical and forward natural gas prices. How have electricity prices been behaving? The graph above shows the monthly average of electricity prices at PJM West (a trading hub where electric generation is concentrated) spanning the 131 month period of time of January 2001 through November 2011. Like natural gas, electricity prices…
Read MoreWe have looked extensively at historical natural gas prices, both nominal and real. What does the market tell us about where natural gas prices may be headed in the future? The above graph shows the monthly “forward curve” for natural gas at four different points in time. The forward curve represents the collective thinking of…
Read MorePrevious articles on the topic of natural gas prices have looked at natural gas prices spanning the 179 month period of time running from January 1997 through November 2011 (click here, here, and here for more information). Here is a graph of the dataset. Each time we have used this graph, we have noted that…
Read MoreLike crude oil prices, fuel oil prices have risen dramatically (click here for more information). The above graph shows the monthly average spot price history of #2 fuel oil delivered to New York Harbor. The prices shown date back to June 1986 and run through November 2011. Fuel oil is a distillate of crude oil…
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